I don’t think we are getting out of this structural recession until a whole new theme for economic development takes root on which to build the next long cycle. I like using the Kondratieff Wave Theory to visualize this. These waves are driven by big changes in technology (railroads, semiconductors) wars, etc. The next big one should be alternative energy. We’ve been on the cusp of it for decades but the old economic and political systems lock in the fossil fuel economy.
Still, I remain hopeful that we can get real Federal legislation to stop global warming. I know it’s bleak politically in Washington, DC right now. And the House bill on climate change (cap and trade) seems to be dying a slow death as people realize it is loaded with pork for the coal industry and is designed to create an ungovernable trading bubble in carbon emissions credits. We can do better.
There is a smart, bipartisan bill in the Senate to stop climate change, The CLEAR Act from Senators Cantwell (D-Washington) and Collins (R-Maine). It puts a cap on on carbon entering the economy (the several thousand oil importers and domestic drillers, the same for coal and natural gas) and then auctions permits to these entities to pollute up to set limits. The cap comes down over the years to get to what scientists say is ecologically sustainable for the planet. The revenues from the permit auctions are then distributed annually to every American with a Social Security number. It’s incredibly innovative policy architecture from writer and entrepreneur Peter Barnes.
There is a big policy fight around these two approaches in the environmental community but that seems useful. A good debate will help the better approach thrive.
More coming.
